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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/24 11:04

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday

   Corn futures are 14 to 15 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
5 to 10 cents lower; wheat futures are 17 to 30 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the S&P down 895 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 25 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies 
are mixed with crude down .10 and natural gas up .7. Livestock trade is mostly 
lower with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 19.50.


   Corn futures are 14 to 15 cents lower at midday with rangebound action 
continuing. The U.S. saw a slightly better-than-expected planting pace last 
week and China finally approved Brazil corn for import; but there was little 
other fresh bullish news with negative outside-market spillover returning. The 
daily export wire has been quiet, while basis shows some signs of life again in 
spots. The ethanol margins look to remain rangebound near term with Memorial 
Day demand likely to pull stocks down a bit and potential RVP waivers may limit 
demand at some point. The second crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch 
while U.S. weather continues to keep moisture in much of the Corn Belt with 
cooler weather until midweek. Weekly crop progress showed good gains in 
planting with corn 72% complete versus 79% on average, with 39% emerged versus 
51% on average. Condition reports may start next week. On the July contract 
chart, we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $7.92 with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $7.67 as support.


   Soybean futures are 5 to 10 cents lower with firmer spread action as trade 
works to find support after fading from the highs on Monday with little fresh 
news otherwise and growing spillover from outside markets. Meal is $1.50 to 
$2.50 higher and oil is 25 to 35 points higher with meal working back from 
early weakness after the rally slowed Monday. South America is moving toward 
post-harvest footing at this point. Planting in the U.S. will remain sluggish 
with the expected moisture this week; the cool down will slow emergence until 
the second half of the week. The weekly Crop Progress report showed soybeans 
50% planted versus 55% on average; 21% emerged versus 26% on average. On the 
July soybean chart, we are well above the 20-day moving average at $16.53 with 
the upper Bollinger band at $17.23 the next round up.


   Wheat futures are 17 to 30 cents lower with spring wheat holding up the best 
on planting pace with little change to Northern Hemisphere weather or political 
situation. The U.S. dollar is fading back off the highs as well to add a little 
support if selling continues. Warmer weather is expected to return later this 
week to push maturity again. Wheat heading is 63% versus 65% on average, and 
conditions slightly improved at 28% good to excellent; 40% poor to very poor, 
down 1%. Spring wheat planting was 49% complete versus 83% on average; 29% 
emerged versus 50% on average. KC wheat is back to a 33-cent discount to 
Minneapolis in wider action, and at an 80-cent premium to Chicago, narrowing a 
bit. The KC July chart has resistance at the Upper Bollinger Band at $13.76, 
with the 20-day moving average well below the market at $12.15.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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